Smart fantasy managers know that Week 1 can make or break your season, and this year’s rankings tell a fascinating story about which players deserve your attention.
After years of analyzing data and making countless start sit decisions, I have learned that the biggest surprises often come from risers who were faded in drafts but show incredible potential when you dig deeper into the numbers. Take Trevor Lawrence, for example, whose forgettable 2024 campaign saw him averaging just 16.3 points per game, causing many to overlook his QB20 consensus ADP in 2025 drafts.
What most fantasy football enthusiasts miss is Lawrence’s proven ceiling with QB8 and QB12 finishes on his resume, plus his unique spike potential as both a rusher and passer. The Jaguars signal caller enters a completely new offense under Liam Coen, featuring explosive weapons like Brian Thomas Jr and Travis Hunter, which could help T-Law climb to new heights.
When you analyze Jacksonville’s sixth highest team total of 25 points based on Vegas odds, combined with facing a Panthers defense that provided the fourth highest fantasy boost to opposing QBs at 4.4 PPG, Lawrence profiles extremely well in my projections with a Floor of 9.9 (ranked 7th), Median of 17.6 (also 7th), and Xfinity Best ceiling of 29.9 (ranked 6th). Why are so many managers still sleeping on a quarterback who’s primed to get the engine revving in Week 1?
QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News
When analyzing Week 1 quarterback opportunities, two names consistently emerge as undervalued gems that savvy fantasy managers should consider.
Drake Maye absolutely dominated when given the chance, having played 90% of snaps across 9 games as a rookie while averaging an impressive 18.6 fantasy points in those contests. What makes Maye particularly intriguing is his scramble rate of 11%, which ranked second behind only Jayden Daniels, suggesting we could see even more designed run game work under Josh McDaniels’ system. The Patriots quarterback offers a compelling median projection of 17.4 (ranked 9th) and an Xfinity Best projection of 29.4 (ranked 8th), yet he was somehow the consensus QB16 based on ADP this summer despite being my QB12 for Week 1.
Jordan Love presents excellent value as the Packers carry the sixth best team total of 25 points in what could easily become a high-scoring shootout against the Lions. While the Lions defense gave up the seventh largest fantasy boost to QBs at 2.5 PPG last season and were very banged up, the bookmakers are clearly telling us they don’t care about those concerns. Though Love’s Xfinity Best projection is held down a tad by his lack of rushing upside, this represents a good spot for the Packers signal caller, making him my QB15. Why are so many fantasy managers overlooking these quarterbacks who offer legitimate upside in favorable matchups?
Chase Brown | RB | Bengals
Looking beyond the obvious picks, savvy fantasy managers need to recognize when a player has completely demolished expectations and deserves immediate respect in your lineup decisions.
Brown absolutely transformed fantasy leagues after taking over a full time role in Week 9, where he notched the NFL’s top Utilization Score of 95 while averaging the fourth most fantasy points per game at 20.9 over that crucial span.
What makes this Week 1 matchup even more compelling is how the Bengals enter as 5.5 point favorites (the fourth highest spread) against the Browns while they carry a 26.5 team total that ranks second best across the league.
From my years of analyzing matchups, this combination has historically been absolutely fantastic for running backs, even though Cincinnati operates a pass first offense that might fool casual observers. The numbers tell a different story when you dig deeper into the projections: Brown offers a
- Median of 15.4 (ranked RB4)
- Xfinity Best ceiling of 32.1 (also RB4)
Yet he was somehow the consensus RB11 based on ADP this summer. How can you ignore a player who immediately climbs from RB11 to RB6 in my rankings for Week 1, especially when this matchup sets up so very well for his skill set? This is what I call a SMASH play that separates championship teams from the rest of the pack.
James Conner | RB | Cardinals
Sometimes the most profitable fantasy moves come from recognizing when a player finally gets the respect they deserve, and James Conner represents exactly that opportunity in Week 1.
While Conner got a little more attention in fantasy drafts this summer than in previous seasons, he was still drafted as the RB20, which creates tremendous value for managers willing to dig deeper into the data. The Cardinals enter Week 1 as 6.5 point favorites (the second best spread) over the Saints, and even our NFL Betting Game Model from the great Matthew Freedman (with help from our new data scientist Alex Veroulis) remains confident enough that Conner notches the fifth highest spread at 4.8 points.
With the sixth highest team total on the slate at 25 points, Conner is perfectly set up to outperform his draft position right out of the gate and start the season on a heater. His projections tell the whole story: a Median of 13.6 (ranked RB13) and an Xfinity Best ceiling of 28.0 (ranked RB16), making him my RB16 this week despite offers high end RB1 upside in what should be a dominant game script.
RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News
Smart fantasy managers understand that Week 1 opportunities often hide in backfields where coaches have historically provided multiple usable RBs, and Sean Payton stands as one of the few masterminds who consistently delivers this value. The Broncos enter as 8.5 point favorites with a 25.5 team total, creating an ideal environment where both
RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins can thrive after Denver made significant investments in their backfield with Harvey (a Round 2 NFL Draft pick) and Dobbins (via free agency). From my years of tracking Payton’s schemes, he delivered Two RB1s in 2017, one RB1 and an RB2 in both 2006 and 2011, two RB2s in 2008 and 2013, plus one RB1 and one RB3 in 2009 and 2014, proving his ability to maximize multiple talents in the same season. While the first two years in Denver weren’t good, both players profile as borderline RB2s, and one of them will likely finish higher than expected.
Jacory Croskey Merritt offers intriguing flex value as the Commanders sit as Eight point favorites with a 25.75 team total, despite rumblings of a three way split with Chris Rodriguez Jr getting early down work. My gut says Bill remains the primary reason the Commanders were willing to move on from Brian Robinson Jr, making him a mid range RB3 with legitimate upside that’s flex worthy right out of the gate to kick off 2025.
Deebo Samuel | WR | Commanders
When searching for hidden gems in Week 1, savvy managers should recognize when a player’s outlook becomes significantly hotter than what his draft position suggests, and Samuel represents exactly that opportunity against the Giants. While Samuel was the consensus WR36 based on ADP this summer, his current situation is practically sizzling like the heat index in Texas during a midday run (not recommended for obvious reasons).
The Commanders carry the fourth best team total at 25.75 points, but what makes this even more compelling is that the Fantasy Life Betting Model likes them at an impressive 27.45, suggesting the betting markets might be undervaluing this offense.
As six point favorites over New York, we could certainly see a fair amount of running late in the game, but Samuel has multiple outs in that capacity thanks to his versatility. What really excites me about this matchup is how the Commanders newest toy represents a perfect fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme, creating an ideal environment where his skill set can truly flourish from game one.
WR Screen Targets
- 2024: 3rd-most
- 2022: 2nd
- 2021: 1st
WR RPO Targets
- 2024: 4th
- 2022: 10th
- 2021: 8th
WR Rush Atts
- 2024: 24th
- 2022: 8th
- 2021: 5th
Xavier Worthy | WR | Chiefs
Breaking down breakout candidates requires looking beyond surface stats, and Xavier Worthy absolutely played like a madman down the stretch for the Chiefs after taking over a starting role in what became a championship run.
From Week 14 through the playoffs, he averaged an impressive 19 PPG over seven games, but what really caught my attention was how his underlying data points looked eerily similar to Rashee Rice when he broke out in a full time role late in 2023 as a rookie. The numbers tell the whole story: 25% targets (WR1 worthy), 21% Air Yards (WR5 worthy), 2.13 YPRR (WR2 worthy), plus 1.1 Rush Attempts per game that showcase his versatility.
While the Year 2 receiver still has plenty to work on in his development, he will get a golden chance to show off his growth early with Rice suspended for the first six games of the season. Pete ranks No 1 in all of our hearts, and one of his favorite young players happens to be Worthy, who profiles as a mid range WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside in an explosive Kansas City offense.
Brass Balls Bench
Sometimes the smartest fantasy managers need to make big calls and recognize when players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options, and Dak Prescott represents exactly that dilemma in Week 1. While Prescott was drafted as the QB10 and the Cowboys are one of my favorites to lead the league in pass attempts in 2025, this specific matchup creates serious concerns that experienced managers should consider.
The Eagles come loaded on defense and held opposing QBs three points below their season average in 2024, making them the hardest defense in the NFL to score fantasy points on after adjusting for their competition. Oddsmakers know this reality, which is part of the reason the Cowboys enter as 8.5 point dogs with the fourth lowest team total at 19.5 points on the slate.
Dak is going to get his attempts but just how much scoring can we expect when facing such a dominant unit? Prescott ranks as my QB16 this weekend, falling behind names like Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Maye, Caleb Williams, and Love, while Freedman has him even lower than me at QB22. For what it’s worth, Freedman might be a wet blanket, but he is also a very smart man who understands when matchups simply don’t favor high-priced quarterbacks.